Not sure about that. I could easily see Trump taking it as a personal insult, and he’s not the sort of person inclined to back down, so he might actually be much more pro Ukraine if it had happened under his watch.
I think you are generally right about the financial costs of the aid to Ukraine. Although keep in mind that this seems like a really bad time to increase the debt, however little, and increased government demand for loans, likely trades of against Private demand for credit. But you are neglecting the biggest cost of the aid which is increased risk of World War III due to miss perceptions. Since it worsens relations with Russia and prolonged periods of bad relations with Moscow are just begging for a repeat of the near disaster in 1983. I also disagree about the relative merits of prolonging the war compare to causing it to end sooner at the cost of a Russian victory, but I’m not sure either of us can persuade the other about that and to be fair, Russia did need to be punished for the invasion. Still, I worry that this kind of unconditional support for allies is setting a bad precedent. What if say Taiwan had seen this as a sign of America’s willingness to support it in conflicts, and become much more willing to do what it wants, even when it would provoke the PRC. Admittedly, I think Trump‘s U-turn on Ukraine has helped to solve this problem.
Terrifying thought - if Putin had just been patient and waited for Trump to be re-elected, he would probably have won his war.
Not sure about that. I could easily see Trump taking it as a personal insult, and he’s not the sort of person inclined to back down, so he might actually be much more pro Ukraine if it had happened under his watch.
I think you are generally right about the financial costs of the aid to Ukraine. Although keep in mind that this seems like a really bad time to increase the debt, however little, and increased government demand for loans, likely trades of against Private demand for credit. But you are neglecting the biggest cost of the aid which is increased risk of World War III due to miss perceptions. Since it worsens relations with Russia and prolonged periods of bad relations with Moscow are just begging for a repeat of the near disaster in 1983. I also disagree about the relative merits of prolonging the war compare to causing it to end sooner at the cost of a Russian victory, but I’m not sure either of us can persuade the other about that and to be fair, Russia did need to be punished for the invasion. Still, I worry that this kind of unconditional support for allies is setting a bad precedent. What if say Taiwan had seen this as a sign of America’s willingness to support it in conflicts, and become much more willing to do what it wants, even when it would provoke the PRC. Admittedly, I think Trump‘s U-turn on Ukraine has helped to solve this problem.