Why we’re reeling from 7/13, and how to snap out of it

Americans should know which side foments violence, and which side instantly condemns it. Well… almost instantly.

I don’t want this newsletter to be the sort that has to give a take on the shooting. You all know what happened. Every pundit in the country scrambles to analyze from every angle, and I have no special gift that makes my blather better. I like cold takes more than hot takes, and don’t plan to chase headlines every week.

But this one messed me up a bit, and I sense I’m not alone. A lot of anti-Trump people I’ve talked to spent this weekend in a glum stupor no amount of manic feed-refreshing could assuage. For mostly my own benefit, I want to reflect on why, and what to do from here. If others relate, that’s a nice bonus. I have three thoughts:

1.   Admit it: for a minute, you wished…

You know assassinating politicians is bad. You know it contradicts your democratic values, subverts the peaceful processes on which just and stable governance relies, and further unravels our proud tradition of self-rule at an already precarious moment. Because you know this, I will spare you a lecture. But lest anyone say I did not, I condemn all political assassinations, including this attempt. Truly, forcefully, I do.

It took me at 60 seconds to get there, though.

When I first saw the headline, something like “Trump rushed off stage after possible gunfire,” my unchosen emotion was a flicker of hope that he’d died. And had he died, my next unchosen emotion would have been the heaviest relief. My hate for that man, and dread at the prospect of his return to power, is so intense that fear of a resulting civil war would’ve come several minutes of jubilation later, at the earliest. I’m not proud of this, but I can admit it.

When I learned it really was an assassination attempt; that a bullet had grazed his ear but he’d live; and that it had instead resulted in a Pulitzer shoo-in photograph of him raising his fist with blood on his face and an American flag in the background, my hope became four layers of despair.

First, I despaired that this would appear to validate Trumpers’ bullshit persecution complex, fueling their efforts to frame him as a truth-telling martyr being prosecuted, convicted, and now attacked for threatening the nonexistent “deep state.”

There has never been a more literal embodiment of “you got blood on your face, you big disgrace, waving your banner all over the place.”

Second, I despaired that the shooting may embolden Trumpers to wage even more violent retaliation on people who had nothing to do with the would-be assassin, accelerating our democracy’s death spiral. Third, I despaired that it would make Trump look tough, helping him in the election.

And because this was just five-ish minutes after I’d seen the first headline, my fourth despair was that missing two inches left achieves all 1,000 reasons why political assassinations are bad, without the one reason it would’ve been good.

It took a few more minutes to realize that even this reason would not, in fact, have been good. But I did realize it, and so did the overwhelming majority of anti-Trump people, including every elected Democrat. So then we had a fifth and sixth reason to despair: not only was our country coming apart at the seams, but so were we, just a little.

I am 100% confident that if Mitt Romney or Barack Obama – two men I did not like at the time - had been shot in the ear in 2012, I would have felt nothing but concern for their well-being and that of our country. Then I’d have felt patriotism from the absolute certainty that both parties would come together to denounce it, and neither side would blame the other or weaponize it for political gain. We were all better than that, once.

A seventh despair was the trending conspiracy theories speculating that it was all some sort of false flag, like QAnon for the left. An eighth was feeling the tug to indulge in that sort of thinking myself. It would have been so convenient if that were true! Wasn’t the Secret Service a bit slow to get him off the stage?... The intensity and conflictedness of these emotions, all of which ended in despair, after two weeks of Biden drama that had already been fairly draining, is what put me in the stupor.

2.   Words, not bullets.

A common refrain from both sides has been “ballots, not bullets.” This is fine advice, but the sort you can only follow on one out of 1461 days.¹ On the days between elections, democracy is words. Another reason we’re reeling is that words feel pretty useless, so democracy feels dead already.

Several of my thoughts on Saturday could be summarized by “the truth won’t matter.” The shooter was not sent by Democrats, but a big dumb chunk of the country would think so anyway. Getting shot at does not boost one’s qualifications to be President, but a big dumb chunk of the country would think so anyway. The 2020 election was not stolen, but… Trying to overturn the election, inciting and justifying January 6^th, two impeachments, falsifying financial records, stealing classified documents, war crimes enthusiasm, perjury, forgery, racketeering, and a long history of sexual assault should send you to prison instead of the Oval Office – and yet…²

“Ballots not bullets” skips over the steps that make those ballots worth a damn. Might does not make right, but neither does a majority unless it is movable by reason. I’m not sure what portion of Americans reason still reaches; maybe it’s already too late. But for democracy to be worth saving in the first place, we have to assume that portion still includes the median voter. It’s still plausible it does, and there’s only one way to find out, so there’s no excuse not to try. For the next 111 days, anti-Trump people need to use their words. This starts by nominating a candidate who can still use theirs.

As I said, I’m not proud of my initial reaction to the shooting. But I am proud of my subsequent reaction. I am proud of my ability to notice a tribal tug; sit with it; discuss it; reflect on my biases’ role in producing it; and then, if reason dictates, pull back from it. This ability is the difference between populism and liberalism; Trumpism and intelligence; disdainfully manipulating people with the simplified bullshit they want to hear, and respecting them enough to tell them the messy truth. Our messaging about this shooting needs to show which side we’re on.

3.   If Republicans want to make this election about political violence, let them. We have receipts.

Because this is no longer 2012, Republicans instantly responded to 7/13 by blaming Democrats for the shooting. Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia went as far as to say Biden “sent the orders”, but most Republicans have been slightly less frothy-mouthed.³ Mimicking Democrats’ terminology after January 6^th, the argument is that Democrats “incited” the attack by portraying Trump as “an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” in the words of J.D. Vance. Stephen Miller dramatized further:

"The entire campaign message of the Democrat Party has been the vile and monstrous lie that Trump and the GOP are trying to end democracy. This mammoth lie, this sinister poison, this terrible hate and defamation, must stop. It must stop."

To parry this accusation, Democrats may feel pressured to dial down the rhetoric about Trump’s threat to democracy. I think they should do the opposite. Republicans will not convince America that the DNC candidate is to blame for this attack, and the more they try, the more the conversation lingers where Democrats’ arguments are strongest.

It is reasonable to argue—and also reasonable to dispute—that some of the rhetoric about a second Trump term has been unfair hyperbole. But this hyperbole is well within the norms of U.S. politics, and certainly more plausible than much Republican hyperbole about Biden. It is pure nonsense that it is in any way symmetrical to Trump’s intentional, monthslong effort to subvert the 2020 election. Democrats must trust voters to see through that.

Democrats have been trying to get voters to care about Republicans’ flirtation with political violence since Charlottesville. Maybe an especially visceral act of violence makes a few more folks pay attention, even if this particular act cut the opposite way. The message to these people should be: yes, political violence is rising and terrifying, but you all know it did not start on 7/13. 7/13 just showed how close to the brink we’ve already become.

Deep down, I think most undecided voters know who brought us there. If they don’t, we need to make them know.

All we need to prove this point is put each side’s reaction to political violence side by side on the same screen. When a lone wolf of unknown allegiance chose violence to disrupt our peaceful democratic process on 7/13, elected Democrats immediately, stridently, and universally condemned it. When Republican Senator Steve Scalise was shot in 2017 by a Bernie Sanders supporter, elected Democrats immediately, stridently, and universally condemned it. There aren’t many more examples, because violence is not the Democrats’ way.

But when a large crowd of MAGA Republicans chanting “hang Mike Pence” attempted violence to disrupt our election’s certification based on a lie, Trump and his sycophants cheered them on, repeated the lie, spent the next four years portraying them as martyrs who should not be in prison, and promised to pardon them on Day 1 of his presidency.

When a Trump supporter tried to kill Nancy Pelosi and broke her husband’s skull with a hammer, Trump mocked them both to a cheering crowd. So did his son. When feds seemingly⁴ foiled a plot to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer in 2020, Trump used the story as a chance to bash her on Twitter. Vox recalls similar cases:

At a 2016 rally in Iowa, Trump instructed his supporters to “knock the crap out of” disruptive protesters. “I promise you I will pay for the legal fees,” he added. During the 2020 protests over George Floyd’s murder, Trump implied that any rioters should be shot by tweeting an old white supremacist slogan: “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.”

In 2023, Trump suggested that former Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Mark Milley deserves to be executed. On Veterans’ Day, he vowed to “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country.” Just last week, his ideological acolyte Jack Probosiec gave an utterly deranged speech threatening to arrest Biden’s cabinet members and staff and “chase the communists back into their urine-soaked faculty lounges,” because “we don’t negotiate with un-humans.” After his speech, Republican Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas took the stage and said “Boy, great job, Jack. When people ask me what’s the hope out there, Jack’s voice is one of them.”

For the next 111 days, anti-Trump people need to use their words. This starts with nominating a candidate who can still use theirs.

Studies show political violence and threats are “three to five times higher” on the right than the left, and also far more deadly and impactful. The Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, the attack on an El Paso Walmart frequented by Latinos in 2019, and the 2022 massacre of supermarket shoppers in a Black area of Buffalo were all done by ultra-conservatives. MAGA Republicans are also much more likely to endorse “delusional” and pro-violence statements.

In 2016, Capitol police recorded fewer than 900 threats against members of Congress. By 2021, that number was 9,700. There have been comparably extreme increases in threats against mayors, federal judges, election administrators, public health officials, and even school board members. Judges and prosecutors in Trump’s criminal trials have been swatted and threatened. Mitt Romney faces so many threats that he spends $5,000 per day on security. One prominent conservative journalist has faced “death threats, a bomb scare, a clumsy swatting attempt and doxxing by white nationalists,” as well as people showing up at their home and their kids’ school.

Undecided voters remember our politics before 2016. We should help them reflect on who showed up around tha time. They know that something is “raising the temperature of American politics, making people feel more angry, afraid, and feeling like they need to take political matters into their own hands.” We can’t be afraid to tell the truth: “That ‘something’ is Donald Trump.”

1. For presidential general elections. Yes yes, there are primaries and midterms and bla di bla. Humor me.

2. The same frustration extends to the actual policy issues. Crime is down; the economy is strong; inflation was mostly not Joe Biden’s fault, and is in any case under control; Trump could not end the war in Ukraine in a day, and is as much to blame for Afghanistan as Biden is; Trump’s incompetence needlessly killed thousands during COVID, etc. – but none of that matters because people vote on vibes, lies, and whatever contrived narratives flatter their biases.

3. Collins’ absurd case is that Biden used the figure of speech “put Trump in the bullseye” in call with political donors on Monday. In context, Biden was very obviously talking about his campaign’s need to go on the offensive rhetorically, but truth and good faith messaging doesn’t matter to MAGA loons.

4. I say seemingly because the Whitmer plot, in particular, may have actually been FBI entrapment.